The most important thing to understand about the type A H5N1 avian flu (the “bird flu”) is that eventually it will mutate and create a pandemic. Now it only infects humans via poultry.

It is the young, ages 19 to 25, who are at most risk. The Spanish flu, of 1918, killed between 50 and 100 million. The world’s greater population could result in 180 to 360 million deaths from the avian flu. According to Dr. Frank James, San Juan County Medical Officer, this avian flu has a current death rate of 61 percent. Thankfully it will likely be much less when the pandemic strikes. Wild duck populations always carry strains of the flu virus. Our heightened attention to the H5N1 strain is because it is the most virulent.

When the pandemic strikes, it is best to stay home unless someone is critically ill. Ill people will congregate at medical facilities, so these are the best places to get the illness. Care for your sick family at home as you would for the regular flu: push fluids and get lots of rest.

A vaccine for the avian flu won’t be available until well into the pandemic. It is not known how effective our current anti-flu medications will be against the avian flu. The best weapon is preparation and prevention, which everyone can start now. Every family needs six to eight weeks of food supply. Canned or and dried foods, like whole wheat grain, have long shelf lives and are smart investments. It is also important to have a supply of water for one week or more if a well is not readily accessible. According to Dr. Frank James, 40 to 60 percent of all workers may not go to work during the pandemic. Transportation of food and the basics to stores could shut down. Ferry service could also be stopped to prevent spread of the virus. Supplies for the protection of each family member include three N95 masks and a pair of goggles. Keep a week’s supply of your usual medications. Acetaminophen is good for relief of flu symptoms. Keep some cash handy in case banks close. Have a good supply of personal items. Organize enough pet supplies for a week. Have a cell phone or corded phone handy.

To further reduce your risk of getting ill, wash your hands often. If you bite your finger nails like me, then stop! Keep at least three feet from other people to avoid droplet spread of the virus. Wear a mask at all times you are near other people whether you are sick or not. According to Dr. Robert Wilson, 95 percent of the airborne spread can be stopped this way.

It is not a question of whether the avian flu pandemic will happen, but only of when. Panic and hardship are guaranteed to follow world wide for many months. Dr. James estimates that 12 individuals in our county will die. However, if we prepare in advance and work together, these lives could be saved.

Arielle Wilson is a senior at Lopez High School and adapted this story from her senior project on the avian flu.